Updated Today
SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 12 aims for a successful splashdown by January 31, 2026, with markets currently giving it a 50-50 shot. The test represents another incremental step in developing the fully reusable launch system critical to Moon and Mars missions.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2.82 return per $1
If No wins
$1.55 return per $1
Price Changes
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$678.3K volCrude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$297.5K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$302.3K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11AM ET
PM·$268.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
PM·$249.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET
PM·$242.9K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET
PM·$237.2K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?
PM·$219.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET
PM·$216.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET
PM·$213.3K vol7-8 SpaceX Starship Launches Reach Space 2026
Outcome: 7-8
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Outcome: 5-6
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Outcome: <5
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Outcome: 9-10
Will 15-16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Outcome: 15-16
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Outcome: 11-12
