What are the current odds for "Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 4.4% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $79.3K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 4.4% or No shares at 95.6%. The market has $12.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 1 weeks (Mar 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketeconomics

Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?

Updated Today

Stock market volatility is a persistent concern for investors managing portfolio risk. Markets currently give a single-day S&P 500 drop of at least 5% during Q1 2026 just a 7% chance, suggesting traders expect relatively stable conditions through March 31st despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

Current Probability

4.4%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$22.73 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1