Updated Today
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1? is currently trading at 13.0% on Polymarket, with $18,549 in total trading volume. Track live odds, price history, and compare across prediction market platforms.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$7.69 return per $1
If No wins
$1.15 return per $1
Price Changes
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$344.1K volS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$297.5K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 19?
PM·$302.3K volBitcoin Up or Down on March 18?
PM·$318.5K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11AM ET
PM·$268.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2PM ET
PM·$249.0K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9AM ET
PM·$237.2K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3PM ET
PM·$213.3K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12PM ET
PM·$208.8K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3PM ET
PM·$203.4K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11AM ET
PM·$199.7K volBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
PM·$191.3K vol
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=35 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 35 days
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=60 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 60 days
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=90 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 90 days
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=50 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 50 days
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=40 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 40 days
KalshiUS Govt Shutdown >=43 Days in 2026
Outcome: At least 43 days
