What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 55.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $203.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 55.5% or No shares at 44.5%. The market has $1.6K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Jan 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Updated Today

SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy launch carries substantial risk, with prediction markets currently assigning a 60% probability of an explosive failure. The outcome will be closely watched by the space industry as a key indicator of the vehicle's readiness for crewed missions.

Current Probability

55.5%-0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.80 return per $1

If No wins

$2.25 return per $1