Updated 3 months ago
OpenAI will trigger a "Yes" resolution if it publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product—such as a wearable or AR device—by March 31, 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome 0% probability.
Current Probability
Price Changes
If Yes wins
$2000.00 return per $1
If No wins
$1.00 return per $1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.
Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
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