Updated Ended
Markets currently assign a 93% probability to an Israeli strike on Gaza occurring on March 8, 2026, reflecting the region's ongoing military tensions. The specific date-based nature of this forecast suggests traders expect sustained conflict rather than near-term de-escalation.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$1.08 return per $1
If No wins
$13.33 return per $1
Price Changes
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
PM·$19.10M volWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
PM·$5.82M volWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?
PM·$23.08M volLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A
PM·$5.83M volSpurs vs. Clippers
PM·$4.94M volClippers vs. Pelicans
PM·$4.72M volNetanyahu out by March 31?
PM·$39.90M volLoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B
PM·$4.22M volWarriors vs. Celtics
PM·$3.52M volMagic vs. Hawks
PM·$3.48M volSuns vs. Timberwolves
PM·$3.38M volSuns vs. Celtics
PM·$2.74M vol