What are the current odds for "Will George R. R. Martin announce 'The Winds of Winter' in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 13.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $14.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will George R. R. Martin announce 'The Winds of Winter' in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 13.5% or No shares at 86.5%. The market has $966 in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Updated 2 months ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. Currently 13.5% on Polymarket, with $14,164 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

13.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$7.41 return per $1

If No wins

$1.16 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.