What are the current odds for "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 2.6% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $1.01M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 2.6% or No shares at 97.4%. The market has $70.9K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketsports

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Updated 40 min ago

This market resolves Yes if China's government explicitly announces that citizens can legally purchase Bitcoin with yuan from inside China by December 31, 2026. Markets currently price this announcement at 3%.

Current Probability

2.6%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$37.74 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History