What are the current odds for "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 96.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $157.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 96.7% or No shares at 3.3%. The market has $30.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Updated 2 days ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 96.7% on Polymarket, with $157,461 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

96.7%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.03 return per $1

If No wins

$29.85 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.