Updated 4 weeks ago
Apple must publicly announce and launch an entirely new product category—such as a home robot or gaming console—by year-end 2026 to resolve this market to Yes. Iterative updates to existing lines like iPhone or Apple Watch do not qualify. Markets currently give this a 38% chance of happening.
Current Probability
Price Changes
If Yes wins
$2.67 return per $1
If No wins
$1.60 return per $1
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
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