What are the current odds for "Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 87.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $140.6K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 87.5% or No shares at 12.5%. The market has $5.3K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 10, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

Updated 1 month ago

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. Currently 87.5% on Polymarket, with $140,603 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

87.5%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.14 return per $1

If No wins

$8.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.

If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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