What are the current odds for "US x China Military clash before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 3.2% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $159.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "US x China Military clash before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 3.2% or No shares at 96.8%. The market has $67.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Updated 3 hr ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Currently 3.2% on Polymarket, with $159,544 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

3.2%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$31.25 return per $1

If No wins

$1.03 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.