What are the current odds for "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 17.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $582.2K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 17.5% or No shares at 82.5%. The market has $7.0K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Dec 31, 2025). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Updated Today

Israel-Syria normalization would represent a historic geopolitical shift in the Middle East, yet markets currently assess just a 20% chance it occurs by year-end 2026. Decades of conflict and current regional tensions create significant barriers to diplomatic breakthrough.

Current Probability

17.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$5.71 return per $1

If No wins

$1.21 return per $1