What are the current odds for "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?"?

As of September 2026, prediction markets give this a 99.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $2.23M in total volume.

Where can I trade on "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 99.5% or No shares at 0.5%. The market has $179.7K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 3 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketother

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Updated 1 month ago

Markets currently assess an 18% risk of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine forces through the end of 2026. Qualifying incidents include missile strikes, artillery fire, or gunfire exchanges—but not warning shots or non-damaging actions.

Current Probability

99.5%+0.89%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$1.01 return per $1

If No wins

$200.00 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History