Updated Today
The CDC's travel warning system carries real consequences for tourism and public health response. Markets currently assign a 63% probability the agency issues a Level 3 warning—its second-highest alert—by year-end 2026, reflecting elevated disease or health risks somewhere globally.
Current Probability
If Yes wins
$2.86 return per $1
If No wins
$1.54 return per $1
Price Changes
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KalshiUS Warning for Taiwan by Jan 1 2027
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027
KalshiWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026
KalshiWill the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?
Outcome: Iran
KalshiWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028
KalshiWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2030
KalshiWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?
Outcome: Before Jan 1, 2029
