How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
Updated 1h ago
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly [outcome] during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Kalshi prices no US acquisition of Greenland by year-end at 84%, with all positive-price scenarios totaling just 11%. Trump's aggressive early-2026 push—including military threats and tariff pressure—has stalled since Davos; he shifted in late January to a "framework" for Arctic cooperation, and the topic has receded from headlines with no diplomatic breakthrough by late August. Greenland and Denmark have maintained absolute rejection, and international law barriers remain insurmountable without coercive action the administration has walked back.
As of September 9, 2026, the Kalshi odds for How much will the US acquire Greenland for? are: $0 / No Acquisition: 85%, $10 billion to $99 billion: 5%, $300 billion to $599 billion: 4%, $1 billion to $9 billion: 3%, $600 billion to $899 billion: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
How much will the US acquire Greenland for? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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