Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
Updated just now
If Rashida Tlaib wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 19, 2026
Kalshi's 67% for Abdul El-Sayed diverges sharply from latest polling, which shows Haley Stevens ahead by seven points post-McMorrow exit; the market appears to lag a three-week shift driven by $46 million in establishment advertising favoring Stevens, though grassroots energy and endorsements from Sanders and AOC keep El-Sayed competitive. The primary is August 4 with fewer than three weeks remaining, making late swings toward either the establishment moderate or progressive insurgent plausible. Stevens has consolidated Democratic leadership endorsements while El-Sayed is rallying progressives and union backing.
As of July 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? are: Abdul El-Sayed: 69%, Haley Stevens: 33%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
2pp
3pp
4pp3pp
5pp