Updated 1 week ago
Winner: Paramounton Oct 7, 2026
Before the result
As it stood on Aug 7, 2026, 61 days before the result
Polymarket prices Paramount's Warner Bros. acquisition at 71%, reflecting the definitive $111 billion deal signed in February and clearance from international regulators including Britain as of August 6. However, 26% is priced for no close by June 30, 2027, capturing the real antitrust risk: a 12-state coalition led by California has secured a trial start in March 2027, with Paramount's deal postponed until that outcome or June 1, 2027. Paramount leadership expresses trial confidence and openness to settlement, but faces roughly $1.2 billion in ticking fees by trial's end if it doesn't prevail—creating financial pressure at the negotiation table.
Before Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? ended, the final Polymarket odds were: Paramount: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
No — this market has ended on Polymarket. PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of active markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun if you're looking for what's live now.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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