What are the current odds for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 0.7% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $176.9K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 0.7% or No shares at 99.3%. The market has $3.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve Ended (Jan 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?

Updated Ended

SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 12 faces a 2% launch probability by March 31, 2026—a sharp decline from earlier timelines. Given the program's history of delays and technical challenges, markets remain deeply skeptical this flight will lift off within the window.

Current Probability

0.7%+0.01%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$142.86 return per $1

If No wins

$1.01 return per $1