What are the current odds for "Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?"?

As of March 2026, prediction markets give this a 33.5% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $85.7K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 33.5% or No shares at 66.5%. The market has $12.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 9 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

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Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Updated Today

Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman reaches resolution sometime by year-end 2026, with markets giving Musk a 28% win probability. The case centers on alleged breaches of OpenAI's founding mission, making the outcome consequential for AI governance and nonprofit accountability standards.

Current Probability

33.5%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$2.99 return per $1

If No wins

$1.50 return per $1