What are the current odds for "Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.3% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $9.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.3% or No shares at 94.7%. The market has $237 in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarkettech

Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?

Updated 35 min ago

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Currently 5.3% on Polymarket, with $9,082 in total trading volume.

Current Probability

5.3%

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$18.87 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.

This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.

This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

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