What are the current odds for "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $186.5K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.0% or No shares at 95.0%. The market has $6.5K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketsports

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Updated 4 weeks ago

Following Google's December 2024 announcement of its Willow quantum chip, this market examines whether Bitcoin will abandon SHA-256 encryption by year-end 2026. Markets currently give this outcome just a 5% chance.

Current Probability

5.0%-0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$20.20 return per $1

If No wins

$1.05 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

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