What are the current odds for "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 28.0% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $415.1K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 28.0% or No shares at 72.0%. The market has $11.8K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Jan 1, 2027). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketcrypto

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market compares Bitcoin's percentage gain against gold's in 2026, resolved using year-end TradingView data. Currently, markets give Bitcoin only a 28% chance of outperforming gold over the full calendar year.

Current Probability

28.0%+0.03%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$3.57 return per $1

If No wins

$1.39 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

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