What are the current odds for "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?

As of July 2026, prediction markets give this a 5.8% probability of resolving Yes. This market is trading on Polymarket with $226.8K in total volume.

Where can I trade on "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?

This market is available on Polymarket. You can trade Yes shares at 5.8% or No shares at 94.2%. The market has $10.4K in liquidity.

When does this prediction market close?

This market is scheduled to resolve 5 months (Dec 31, 2026). After resolution, winning shares pay out $1.00 each.

Polymarketscience

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Updated 3 weeks ago

This market resolves Yes if one or more magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes occur anywhere on Earth between December 2025 and December 2026. Markets currently give such a catastrophic seismic event only a 6% probability, consistent with the extreme rarity of earthquakes at this scale.

Current Probability

5.8%+0.00%24h

Trade on Polymarket

YesNo

If Yes wins

$17.24 return per $1

If No wins

$1.06 return per $1

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Resolution Criteria

From Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

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