Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 MO-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Wesley Bell
Winner
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-04
Wesley Bell won the Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, defeating former Representative Cori Bush 59.2% to 36.9% in a rematch. Markets had the outcome nearly contested at 68% for Bell, and his victory was shaped by overwhelming spending disparities, with pro-Israel groups including AIPAC's United Democracy Project spending $2 million to support him versus Bush's grassroots campaign, ultimately cementing his status as the likely Democratic nominee in this heavily Democratic district.
Before MO-01 Democratic nominee? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Wesley Bell: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
