Updated Today
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for March 31, 2026 (end of Q1 2026) is above 4.60%, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q1 2026 be above 3.10%? are: Above 3.30%: 92%, Above 3.20%: 92%, Above 3.60%: 91%, Above 3.70%: 75%, Above 3.40%: 53%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q1 2026 be above 3.10%? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.