Updated Ended
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Trump recognize Somaliland? are: During Trump's term: 14%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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