Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Updated 4h ago
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Aug 31, 2026
Kalshi's 57% implicit probability on Insurrection Act invocation before Trump's term end (Jan 20, 2029) reflects genuine risk embedded in second-term deportation escalation and ongoing domestic unrest rather than certainty. Trump has threatened the act repeatedly since January 2025—most prominently in Minneapolis protests, Chicago, and Portland—but has not yet invoked it, despite court-blocked attempts at alternative military deployment under different statutes. The 40-percentage-point gap to his term end suggests markets acknowledge both the law's historical rarity and Trump's demonstrated willingness to make the threat without immediate follow-through.
As of September 9, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? are: Before Jan 20, 2029: 45%, Before 2027: 16%, Before Jan 19, 2026: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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