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If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? are: Before Jan 20, 2029: 62%, Before 2027: 30%, Before May 2026: 7%, Before Jan 19, 2026: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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