Updated Ended
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 100 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the US government be shut down for at least 1 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026? are: At least 35 days: 99%, At least 30 days: 99%, At least 5 days: 99%, At least 10 days: 99%, At least 25 days: 99%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the US government be shut down for at least 1 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Winner: At least 35 dayson Feb 15, 2026