Updated 2 months ago
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: Fed maintains rateon Jun 17, 2026
What happened
Resolved 2026-06-17
The Federal Reserve voted unanimously on June 17, 2026, to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, rejecting a rate cut and instead signaling potential future hikes as inflation remained elevated. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting saw the committee remove prior guidance indicating bias toward cuts and raise year-end inflation forecasts to 3.6% amid energy shocks from Middle East conflict, with nine of 18 participants now expecting at least one rate hike this year.
Before Fed decision in Jun 2026? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Fed maintains rate: 98%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
