Fed maintains rate
Hike 25bpsHike >25bpsFed decision in Jul 2026?
Updated just now
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 18, 2026
Kalshi prices the Fed at 95% to hold and just 6% to hike on July 29, reflecting sharp disinflation in June data: headline CPI fell to 3.5% and core to 2.6%, calming rate-path expectations dramatically. However, a recent oil-price spike from US-Iran conflict tensions has briefly lifted hike odds, though policymakers including Fed Governor Waller signal multiple months of benign readings are needed before confidence in the 2% target returns, keeping the market heavily weighted toward a hold.
As of July 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Fed decision in Jul 2026? are: Fed maintains rate: 93%, Hike 25bps: 7%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Fed decision in Jul 2026? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
15pp
