Will Conservative win the 2026 Senedd election?

As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Conservative win the 2026 Senedd election? are: Plaid Cymru: 71%, Reform: 28%, Green: 7%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.

Will Conservative win the 2026 Senedd election? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.

Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.