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If Raul Castaneda wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-16 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Adam Bauman be the Republican nominee for TX-16? are: Adam Bauman: 74%, Manuel Barraza: 29%, Hector Cabildo: 3%, Arturo Rios: 2%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Adam Bauman be the Republican nominee for TX-16? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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