David Crowley
Kelda Roys
Joel Brennan
Sara RodriguezUpdated 1 month ago
If [outcome] wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Wisconsin Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winner: David Crowleyon Aug 31, 2026
WinnerWhat happened
Resolved 2026-08-11
David Crowley defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, in a stunning upset of a candidate the markets had priced at just 5% the day before, while Hong held 95%. The Milwaukee County Executive, who had dropped out weeks earlier before re-entering with Governor Tony Evers' backing, won by approximately 3,000 votes in a razor-thin contest against Hong, who had led in final polling but faced scrutiny over controversies and electability concerns.
Before Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: David Crowley: 100%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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