CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?
Updated 2 months ago
If the CPI year-over-year is [outcome] in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
What happened
Resolved 2026-08-12
The July 2026 consumer price index rose 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June, as inflation continued to moderate despite volatile energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Markets had priced the 3.4% outcome at 37% the day before, making it a contested result that matched the most likely consensus. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held steady at 2.5% annually.
Before CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Exactly 3.3%: 49%, Exactly 3.4%: 34%, Exactly 3.5%: 9%, Exactly 2.9%: 7%, Exactly 3.2%: 7%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Winner: Exactly 3.4%on Aug 12, 2026
