Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Renan Santos
Augusto Cury
Ronaldo CaiadoMarket analysis
Analysis generated Aug 27, 2026
Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro at 86% to finish second, far ahead of incumbent Lula at 9%, reflecting the structural two-candidate dynamic at play: first-round polls show Lula leading with 38–41% and Flávio in second at 31–37%, leaving fragmented right-wing alternatives (Caiado, Zema, Santos) in single digits. Since Brazil's system requires a runoff if no candidate hits 50% in the first round, the market implies high confidence that either Lula or Flávio finishes second—and the betting odds heavily favor the polling-consistent outcome where Flávio consolidates right-wing support and edges ahead of rivals to claim that slot.
LeadingAs of September 9, 2026, the Polymarket odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place are: Flávio Bolsonaro: 82%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 17%, Renan Santos: 1%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place is currently listed on Polymarket. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Updated 33m ago
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