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If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? are: Before 2030: 49%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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