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If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in May 2026? are: Above 2.1%: 90%, Above 2.2%: 87%, Above 2.3%: 82%, Above 2.4%: 74%, Above 2.5%: 62%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in May 2026? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
