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If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago for Mar 20, 2026, is greater than 43° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Based on prediction market trading on Kalshi, the most likely outcomes are: 40° to 41°: 34%, 42° to 43°: 28%, 44° or above: 16%, 35° or below: 5%. These forecasts are derived from real-money trades — traders put their own money behind their weather predictions, which tends to produce well-calibrated probability estimates.
Prediction markets aggregate information from many participants who have financial incentives to be accurate. For weather events, markets incorporate data from weather models, local knowledge, and historical patterns. The price of each outcome reflects the crowd's real-money probability estimate.
PredictMarketCap tracks thousands of weather markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, covering temperature, rain, and snow forecasts for cities including New York, Chicago, Seattle, London, Shanghai, Seoul, and more.
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