Will the SAVE Act become law?
Updated 1m ago
If the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Jul 19, 2026
The market prices SAVE Act passage before Jan 4, 2027 at just 7%, reflecting hard structural barriers despite Trump's push. The House has passed versions multiple times (February 2026, April 2025), but the Senate remains the choke point—the bill lacks the 60 votes needed to overcome the filibuster, with Democrats united in opposition and Senate Majority Leader Thune saying Republicans are "not even close" to eliminating the filibuster. Republicans have pivoted to a scaled-back budget reconciliation approach offering states incentive-based funding, but this remains uncertain and faces a compressed timeline before year-end.
As of July 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will the SAVE Act become law? are: Before Jan 4, 2027: 8%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will the SAVE Act become law? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi & Limitless when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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