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If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 20, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? are: Before January 1, 2028: 25%, Before July 1, 2027: 19%, Before January 1, 2027: 15%, Before July 1, 2026: 14%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.