Jacob Tsimerman
John Pardon
Yu DengWho will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Updated 2 months ago
If [outcome] wins the Fields Medal in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Winners: Hong Wang, Jacob Tsimerman, John Pardon, Yu Deng
YesWhat happened
Resolved 2026-07-23
Hong Wang, a mathematician at New York University, won the 2026 Fields Medal for resolving the Kakeya conjecture, becoming only the third woman to receive the award in its 90-year history. The medal was announced on July 23, 2026, at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia. Wang shared the honor with three other mathematicians: Yu Deng, John Pardon, and Jacob Tsimerman.
Before Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? resolved, the final Kalshi odds were: Hong Wang: 100%, Jacob Tsimerman: 100%, John Pardon: 100%, Yu Deng: 99%, Jack Thorne: 1%. These probabilities were derived from real-money trading right up until the market closed.
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Yes
