Rebeca Grynspan
Rafael Grossi
Macky Sall
Olara Otunnu
Carolyn Rodrigues-BirkettWho will be the next UN Secretary-General?
Updated 6h ago
If [outcome] is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Market analysis
Analysis generated Sep 14, 2026
Kalshi's 39% for Grynspan overstates her position after the August UN Security Council straw poll moved Rodrigues-Birkett into first place with 8 "encourage" votes versus Grynspan's 7. The market has yet to fully reprice the reversal: Grynspan led decisively in July (10 votes) but slipped as her discourage votes tripled to 4, while Rodrigues-Birkett surged from 9 to 8 encourages. Grossi and Sall trail significantly with 7 and 5 encourages respectively, suggesting Kalshi's combined 29% for them reflects a two-tier race where Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett are the only viable contenders, fighting for P5 consensus before color-coded ballots reveal potential vetoes.
As of October 11, 2026, the Kalshi odds for Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? are: Rebeca Grynspan: 45%, Rafael Grossi: 20%, Macky Sall: 13%, Olara Otunnu: 10%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett: 9%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? is currently listed on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability — we surface the same event on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless & Predict.fun when it's listed on more than one platform.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
