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If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 21, 2026, the Kalshi odds for When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? are: Before 2040: 59%, Before 2035: 53%, Before 2030: 34%, Before 2027: 6%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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