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If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 50% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
As of March 19, 2026, the Kalshi odds for EV market share in 2030? are: Above 10%: 87%, Above 20%: 74%, Above 30%: 49%, Above 50%: 21%. These probabilities are derived from real-money trading and update in real time.
EV market share in 2030? is currently available on Kalshi. Check PredictMarketCap for cross-platform availability as new markets are added regularly.
Prediction market odds reflect the aggregate opinion of traders who risk real money on outcomes. The price of a share (e.g., 65¢) represents the market's implied probability (65%). Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information, polls, and analysis.
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