Prediction market odds on global conflicts and military escalation
Prediction markets provide real-time probabilities on the world's most dangerous conflicts. From regional tensions to potential great power confrontations, these markets aggregate the collective intelligence of thousands of traders watching geopolitical developments.
How traders priced Hormuz disruption, the Russia sanctions waiver, and selective ship passage. The full probability curve from $50M+ in Polymarket and Kalshi oil markets, day by day.
As Iran holds Ali Khamenei’s funeral, $439M in still-open Polymarket and Kalshi markets price the aftermath of the 2026 war: a successor 83% likely to rule but only 13% likely to appear in public, a Strait of Hormuz just 18% back to normal by month’s end, and a nuclear deal at 24%. The shooting stopped. The markets say almost nothing else did.
A data-driven look at how prediction market platforms created hundreds of new markets within hours of the 2026 Iran war. Polymarket moved first and captured 84% of volume.
War prediction markets let traders bet on conflict scenarios using real money. Prices reflect the market's consensus probability of military escalation. Check the live markets below.
Warner Bros. Acquisition: Who Will Close the Deal by July 2027?
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