Prediction market odds on the US unemployment rate
The US unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, and prediction markets on Kalshi offer contracts on specific rate levels. These markets provide a real-money probability distribution for the labor market outlook — more responsive than quarterly forecasts from economists.
Prediction markets offer contracts on specific unemployment rate levels at various dates. Check the live markets below for the latest probability distribution on the jobless rate.
Traders factor in job creation data, Fed policy, GDP growth, and leading indicators like jobless claims and ADP reports. Markets update in real time as new labor market data is released.
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
