Prediction market odds on the S&P 500 year-end level
Wall Street strategists publish year-end S&P 500 targets every January — and are often wrong. Prediction markets offer a different approach: real-money contracts on specific index levels that update continuously as earnings, economic data, and geopolitical events unfold. These prices provide a probability distribution, not a single point estimate.
Prediction markets offer contracts on various S&P 500 levels. Together they form an implied probability distribution for year-end. Check the live markets below for the latest odds on each level.
Prediction markets complement other forecasting tools by providing a real-time, market-clearing probability. They tend to be well-calibrated because participants have financial incentives to be accurate.
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