Compare prediction market prices across platforms
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction market platforms, but they often price the same events differently. Polymarket is a crypto-native exchange trading in USDC, while Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and trades in USD. This page shows you where their prices agree and — more importantly — where they diverge.
We audited every Polymarket–Kalshi pair our matcher links (186 outcome pairs) and six months of continuously logged gaps (385 episodes). Median real gap: 0.78¢. Every headline “arbitrage” above 8¢ was a stale quote; the three biggest real gaps, verified against live order books, net pennies, a two-year capital lockup, and an illusion. Includes the 2026 fee-wall math and the full episode dataset (CSV, CC BY 4.0).
Quant funds exploit NWS forecast latency. Retail traders bet on thermometers in 37 cities. Inside the $2M/day weather prediction market on Kalshi and Polymarket.
$99M traded on the May 31 ceasefire market. By 5 AM Sunday it was 99%. The biggest volume blast didn't come on the ceasefire announcement — it came 13 hours later, on three words from Putin. And the markets created since aren't buying that the war is actually over.
Polymarket is a crypto-native prediction market on the Polygon blockchain, trading in USDC. It is not available to US residents. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where US residents can legally trade in US dollars. Both offer event contracts, but their coverage, fees, and settlement rules differ.
Neither platform consistently offers better odds — prices vary by market and time. Our arbitrage scanner identifies when the same event is priced differently across platforms, highlighting potential opportunities.
Polymarket is not available to US residents due to regulatory restrictions. Kalshi is available to US residents as a CFTC-regulated exchange. International users can potentially use both platforms.
Polymarket official token FDV above $10B one day after launch?
