Prediction market odds on nuclear weapon detonation
The use of nuclear weapons is the most consequential risk scenario that prediction markets track. While probabilities remain low, these markets provide a real-time gauge of nuclear risk that captures geopolitical tensions, arms control developments, and conflict escalation dynamics.
Prediction markets assign probabilities to nuclear weapon use across different timelines and scenarios. These odds are typically low but shift during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. Check the live markets below.
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
